It’s been over 2 years since Covid-19 started. Since then, we have gone through a rollercoaster of sensational news, misinformation, and somewhat ridiculously random set of restrictions and vaccine mandates.

Recently, Covid related news have been kicked off the prime seat by the horrible events in Ukraine, but even without the war, interest in and conformity to covid restrictions was weakening. This is despite the number of cases hitting record highs and struggling to drop down back to low levels often seen after spikes. A major reason for that is that many restrictions have been lifted and that it appears Omicron is both more infectious and less deadly.

To what extend did Covid vaccines help against the pandemic?

The answer to this question is probably impossible to answer accurately. Vaccines did reduce the death rate, but their effectiveness diminished as new variants appeared. They also did not stop transmission and thus could not guarantee that a vaccinated person would not pass on the disease to someone else. It also begs the question – did Omicron, a weaker variant of the virus, became the dominant strain because of or despite of the vaccines? If vaccines led to the virus mutating into a weaker version to avoid detection by the immune response from the vaccines, then maybe we should be more appreciative. Even so, could the virus have mutated into a deadlier version that also avoids detection? I don’t have the scientific background to answer these questions.

What I can attempt to answer, is why governments around the world used seemingly irrational set of restrictions and rules for vaccines and boosters:

Why did governments use seemingly irrational set of restrictions and rules for vaccines and boosters?

The answer lies within the human psychology reaction to sofa sales, or as known in the UK – the never ending DFS sale. For readers unaware of this British sofa store, DFS is known for forever running a high discount promotional sale of over 50%. These sale periods run for such a high proportion of the year, that in reality the normal price of the sofas they sell is at 50% off their RRP. So why doesn’t DFS put an end to being the butt of the fake discount jokes and just claim that they have good value sofas priced at their actual price? Because this marketing trick works. And it works regardless if people know it is a trick or not.

Most people don’t go sofa shopping often. At best, they may look for a new sofa every 5-10 years. During time of inactivity, people are likely to laugh at these ‘silly’ sales and maybe even accuse DFS of lying. But when people decide to get a new sofa, DFS is the first brand name that comes to mind. These jokes gave the store free PR and ensures prospects would visit them. That is the first part of the psychological effect of this type of marketing.

The second psychological effect is the value perception. Picture two sofa stores. DFS sells a sofa for £1000 reduced from £2000 on a 50% discount while Sofa Store 2 has a different sofa priced at £950 without any discount. Even if you know that the 50% off is likely a marketing trick, subconsciously you perceive that at DFS you get value worth £2000 for the price of £1000 compared to value of £950 for a price of £950. It could be that the £950 Is not only the cheaper sofa but also made of higher quality, but the possibility of getting a bargain from DFS is often too irresistible. Human nature dictates that we like it when we get more for what we give and anchor around the first value that we see, even if it’s a lie. This successful marketing is the reason that DFS is one of few high street shops in the UK to survive for decades and remain profitable.

What does sofa sales and marketing have to do with covid vaccines and governments around the world?

People often respond irrationally to different incentives, and culture and society differences can dictate these responses. Capable governments know this, so when they decide that they want to vaccinate at least 70% of their population, they don’t ask: How can we tell the true value of vaccines (that they will help reduce deaths from Covid but their effectiveness is likely to diminish over time)? Instead, they ask: Given that we want to vaccinate at least 70% of our population, what can we do to maximise vaccinations? Then each government sets out restrictions that will achieve this goal regardless if the restrictions seem absurd, contradictory or even are outright lies.

In the UK, a country where a major part of the population travels abroad for holidays, the restriction becomes “Get a free vaccine or pay £200+ for a PCR test to travel”. British people also love pubs, so… “get a free vaccine or go through inconvenience of testing to enter pubs”. In other countries, different measures might have a bigger effect in increasing vaccination rates.

When governments take these measures, they are not necessarily trying to deceive the public, they are acting just like the sales and marketing department of sofa stores. DFS knows that people are not stupid and can understand that their sofas are not worth their original price. They also know that regardless of that fact, these consistent 50% off sales result in DFS selling more sofas then if they claimed they had the best value sofas. Similarly, people are not stupid and understand that some green pass restrictions appear to be absurd and irrational, but it doesn’t matter if these same restrictions maximise vaccinations.

Logical solutions are not necessarily the effective solutions when it comes to human nature…

I’m not defending neither governments nor DFS’ actions here. Is it fair that DFS’s competitors might be making better sofas but lose out due to DFS’s better marketing? Is it fair that people’s psychology is exploited by the government to achieve their goals? Probably not. But life is and will remain unfair. Just remember that sometimes, things aren’t as simple as they first seem, that the best way to achieve a goal isn’t necessarily the most logical, and that the best way to help people might involve a pinch of dishonesty.